Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
riiiiising
on 20/01/2015, 17:35:44 UTC

Oh, so the imaginary value Smiley EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.