Quote from: riiiiising on January 20, 2015, 05:35:44 PM

Quote from: myworkaccount on January 20, 2015, 05:20:21 PM

Quote from: Warren Buffert on January 20, 2015, 05:15:38 PM

Oh, so the imaginary value

EV works in poker, but it's just nonsense when applied to bitcoin.

Not sure if I'm reading you right. Are you suggesting EV doesn't exist in the Bitcoin market?

If so, why would people even bother trading something if they don't "expect" value to change.

The expected value of a poker hand can be determined using factors such as pot size, players, and probability. Those are objective measures. Warren is saying that it doesn't apply to bitcoin, because there are no objective measures to pull to come up with a proper EV.

That is how EV works. You can't just say.. there is VC investment in some third party exchanges and more stores are accepting bitcoin, so that means it has positive EV. That's just an optimistic guess... not EV.

EV calculations don't solely involved accurate measures of the various parameters. You often have to put some subjective bayesian inferences in the mix, especially while playing poker.

For example you dont know the other player's hand, you have to give him a hand range, and you adjust the probability of him having a given hand based chiefly on bayesian inferences.