Quote from: iGotSpots on January 29, 2015, 09:25:10 PM

Quote from: Phosphorous on January 29, 2015, 09:21:58 PM

I think we could put his question another way, which in my mind is, what is the 5 year plan for this coin? At that point there will be millions of quadrillions of MMXIV. Will it matter if I have a few million quadrillion MMXIV at that point?

Small minds use flat amounts. Big earners use percentages. Actual per coin price and amount of coins held are irrelevant when a system is based purely on percentage

Your question should be 'will my 5% of the total network be worth more in 5 years?' to which the answer is a resounding, and proven, yes

Yes, but let me make a point...
Current money supply is approx 22k and current price is .02BTC.
The minimum price any coin can be is 1 Satoshi.
And before I begin, we must accept that value is relative to supply, that's Econ 101. It's the exact relationship of supply of M-coin in this case to value that is very difficult to model or predict, but in general an increase in supply should result in a lower price. Will a doubling of supply lead to a halving of the price? No, we have yet to see that. So the exact relationship is unknown. And who knows, perhaps M-coin will defy the laws of economics at least for a while as there is more that factors into price than just the supply. But I think eventually an exponential increase in supply has to have an effect.

Theoretically, if coin value was directly proportionate to supply (which it isn't) and assuming no price changes, if my calculations are correct, when the supply hits 4.4B (Approx Dec 7, 2015) the value of an M coin would be 1 Satoshi. So to extend this, when the supply hits 1T, each coin would be worth approx 1/23 of 1 Satoshi which of course, is impossible to value since the minimum value is 1S. In other words, in this theoretical scenario after the supply hits 4.4B each coin becomes untradeable no matter how many of them you have unless an exchange opens that lets you trade coins worth fractions of a Satoshi.

Don't take offense... that's just theory and not what I'm saying will happen.

However, the only way this scenario is avoided/delayed is if the value of 1 M coin increases and/or does not decrease inversely proportionate to the supply. Let's look at that scenario:
Relative to supply and per my memory of the coin being worth about .01 at the beginning of 2014% POS, we've actually seen an increase in the value of M-coin of about 22-fold which is remarkable! But how long can this keep up? The price has effectively doubled (relative to supply) about 4.3 times in about 55 days while the supply has only doubled about 3.3 times. So far we are good! But is the relative price increase sustainable? It will be difficult to accomplish because the math gets crazy.

Again, it's impossible to predict or model, but if the price stops maintaining or increasing relative to supply we start looking at a probability of 1 Satoshi valuation anywhere between the day the supply hits 4.4B ("worst" case (although there could be worse due to other market forces like 'dumpers'), which is the value of 1 M-coin decreasing exactly proportional to increase in supply) and (best case), 1 Quadrillion (~Oct 17, 2016) in a scenario where M-coin holds its value well but ultimately cannot effectively keep doubling in price relative to increase in supply. Admittedly I picked the 1Q number out of the air, but it is 256000x greater than 4.4B so the range is wide and reasonable. The scary thing is that 1Q supply is less than 2 years away.

That's why I ask about the 5-year plan. Shoot, by Sept 2018 at 4% daily increase in supply there will be 1 Octillion M-coins in existence.

What will the exchanges look like then? If you have 1% of 1 Octillion coins, and each is worth 1 Satosi BTC, you would have the equivalent of 1000 Quadrillion BTC.

Shoot, what will the exchanges look like in September when the supply hits 100M? A holder of 1% would be 1M M-coin. At current valuation it would be worth 20000 BTC, which takes a special kind of buyer to take the other side of that transaction, even if they want to just whittle away and sell 1% of their 1M M-coin, assuming a scenario where the coin is still commanding 0.2BTC. The transaction sizes would be enormous and unrealistic.

What am I missing?
Tell me where my "small mind" is going wrong about the long-term outlook?