Quote from: Torque on January 30, 2015, 04:30:11 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on January 30, 2015, 04:22:32 PM

If you re-visit threads from the first half of 2014, you'll see the old bullish regulars declaring with full conviction that the bottom *must* be in now. Plenty of posts with the usual log-linear extrapolations to 1000s of $ per coin were posted again.

....

My point is, in a deep bear market like this, what do you expect the long-term Bitcoin believers to post? Predictions about impending reversals? Done that, and failed. Pat each other on the back for not being affected yet because their entry price was in the single digits? That happens occasionally, and it provokes a justified backlash.

Again, I don't think most of those so-called "bulls" were genuine at all, only a small percentage were real bull long investors that truly care about bitcoin's future. Most of those older bull accounts just belong to disingenuous day traders flipping the script during a rally to "To da moon!", how bitcoin will change the world, bogus charts, rockets/trains, sky high predictions, and other such nonsense because it serves their purpose at the moment.

And declarations of "The bottom MUST be in!" is just bull trap fodder spread by day traders trying to unload more coins.

Once the rally is over, they eventually log out of those bull accounts, and back into their bear troll accounts and go to town. Starting the bullshit cycle all over again.

If you are a newbie that comes here in the middle of a rally, then the joke is on you. You already missed the train for a long while.

The good news for true longs is, now during the "Despondancy Stage" is probably a very good time to buy.

You are describing a phenomenon (the "trolls" that switch the music from bull to bear) that is simply a natural consequence of another phenomenon.
What phenomenon you ask?

The way this market works. The way uptrends and downtrends in the bitcoin market work.

Just go look at the all time chart. Does it look like a natural or healthy market? There are hardly any healthy sustainable uptrends and grow in there, just periods of ridiculous bubbles that don't last that long followed by LONG periods of dumps into the ground (that in previous bubble cycles stopped always higher, but that is irrelevant).
Look at the 2011 chart. The "$32 to $2" one. Sure, it eventually recovered and went into other bubbles after, but does it look like a healthy market to you? No, the majority of people responsible for those price increases (and consequent dumps) don't seem to care about using bitcoin or how many bitcoin they have, they care about how many dollars they are gonna get when they dump higher (or how many dollars they get when they close their shorts).

Do the words and expression "bubble" or "pump&dump" ring any bells here?

Daytraders, speculators ot trolls are not the problem, because these unnatural unhealthy price movements (exponential pumps or prolonged panics and relentless dumps) are an indication that bitcoin is not a payment system, but can only be a musical chairs "let's make a quick dollar" instrument. It doesn't have a real use (not for the majority of people involved in bitcoin for whatever reason) that would justify a high price aside from the speculative aspect of it as an end in itself.

A speculative bubble based on blind hype and kool aid works like this: As long as the pumps are possible because of a low enough price and marketcap everyone stays in the game, but when unsustainable long term "demand/supply inbalance" price range is reached (and that could have been the $500-$1000 range for BTC) shit hits the fan, THE bubble actually bursts and everybody starts to lose interest (demand goes to shit and price slowly and gradually decreases and doesn't recover anymore).

The only significant number of people (percentage) actually using bitcoin as payment system because of its only advantages to fiat money are drug dealers. And sometimes they get totally screwed by it anyway: http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-crash-drug-dealers-2015-1?r=US

Think about all that for a moment.