Quote from: Beans on July 15, 2012, 11:10:41 AM

Quote from: John (johnthedong) on July 15, 2012, 11:03:55 AM

Quote from: deepceleron on July 15, 2012, 10:54:00 AM

Quote from: Beans on July 15, 2012, 10:50:07 AM

Quote from: deepceleron on July 15, 2012, 10:45:29 AM

Here you go:

Quote from: deepceleron on June 23, 2011, 09:57:19 PM

Here's the current bitcoin difficulty: http://blockexplorer.com/q/getdifficulty.

I reduced the formula down to: average BTC per Day = (megahashes per second / difficulty) * 1005.82838

so: 100 megahashes/s at 1379223.4296725 difficulty = ( 100 / 1379223.4296725 ) * 1005.82838 = .07292715 BTC per day

Add ~1% in transaction fee wins (if paid by pool), subtract downtime, connectivity issues, and rejected block overhead, and subtract pool fees.

If you join a large pool that solves several blocks a day your results will be very close to this. If you are solo mining with a GPU, it is more like a lottery - although stats say it would average eight months to win 50 BTC at current difficulty with a good ATI GPU, you might win it tomorrow or you might never win in your lifetime.

You know where he is getting 1005.82838 from?

Yes I do, because he is me!

From the probability of finding a block solution with a single hash and the formula that relates that to difficulty, with lots of algebra carrying the units.

Thanks for the magic number. Now I can cut my spreadsheet formulas down. Grin

I thought he was saying that number is not always the same?

It is for now. The only variables are the hashrate and difficulty. Unless you factor in the block halving this year.