Quote from: oda.krell on January 31, 2015, 05:22:11 PM

Quote from: Arpeggio on January 31, 2015, 05:11:01 PM

Noob question. Is there a way for one to somehow value this instrument for market vs intrinsic value.. Any ratio performance driver?Or something similar in a way to 3 financial statement forecasting model for equities or is TA the only way to ride?

I'd argue there's a number of fundamentals that are highly relevant, such as overall adoption / network size, or valuation floor through usage as medium of exchange for goods valued in USD. Problem is, those are (a) notoriously difficult to estimate precisely, and (b) even if you can estimate them more or less correctly, there never was a long term stable price that would define the "right" ratio of total valuation to adoption/network size, for example.

I personally think the "floor" defined by medium of exchange is the best you can do. By that metric alone, we're most likely still quite a bit overpriced, but that could either mean we drop further up to that floor or that floor isn't the only relevant metric. Probably the latter.

By my estimates, even with generous assumptions about e-payment volume and coin lock-up time, I get around 20 USD/BTC at most. The current price is still supported mostly by speculation (people who buy bitcoins and hold them in the hope of selling or spending them at a higher price, minutes or decades later).