Re: [10000Th] Eligius: 0% Fee BTC, 105% PPS NMC, No registration, CPPSRB
In both cases of Eligius and BTC Guild, the % doesn't relate directly to the payout anyway (me also of course)
In Eligius the backpay PPS thingy means your max pay is 100% PPS no matter how good the luck is.
There is a relationship between pool luck the time it takes to receive your pay though, so pool luck still affects miners.In Eligius the backpay PPS thingy means your max pay is 100% PPS no matter how good the luck is.
In BTC Guild the shifts mean that you'd need to look across all shifts in the payout to make any use of the luck % (being inverted from share %) and invert it then avg it then invert it again ... to get a number that is related ... so yeah almost no one does that in their head 
There is another way to determine luck for BTC Guild that would still allow you to derive a CDF, and that is by the Poisson probability of a certain number of blocks occurring after a certain number of d1 shares in a shift, with the mean being difficulty / (d1 shares per shift).
Share% seems a lot clearer IMO and way less prone to misunderstanding -
I agree, but then I'm biased since that's the way I do it
- and yes as you know I also have CDF also thanks to your help on that
The cdf you have is only for each block though - if you want a cdf for the past 100 blocks or 1000 blocks, let me know and I'll look up the GSL function that will do that for you.