Quote from: skivrmt on February 10, 2015, 10:32:53 PM

Quote from: VincentX on February 10, 2015, 09:33:09 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 10, 2015, 07:51:49 PM

Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 10, 2015, 07:51:49 PM

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

I 100% agree. It's not in the EU's best interest or Greece's best interest to leave the EU. In the end though, I think it's at least possible, many years down the road, as negotiations fail and their economy fails for them to "voluntarily" leave the EU...

This pretty much draws it all very legibly. I have something to add though. Under the EU agreement, there's no "rule" that "forces" a country to leave. Actually, something like that is not documented. So, even if Schauble's or Varoufakis threats about Austerity or Not Austerity, New Agreement, or No New Agreement, it's simply "politics". As it's already said above, I'm waiting for a mutual understanding, a little bit of this, for a little bit of that, and a bittersweet outcome. Greece won't leave the EU but will have to pay a price. It's not possible or even sane for both parts.