Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 11, 2015, 01:47:15 AM

Quote from: VincentX on February 10, 2015, 09:33:09 PM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 10, 2015, 07:51:49 PM

Greece is a basket case. It's not all that complicated to understand if you have a solid grounding in economics and human nature. Tsipras and Varoufakis are lefties elected to erase the consequences of a country spending far more than they earned for a prolonged time period. They face an impossible task and they know it, so they are busy blaming others for their obvious impending failure to do what they promised to do. Breaking promises seems to be the Greek national pastime. No sane person would want to negotiate with these bad faith actors even if they weren't deluded socialists.

This is essentially correct. Greece has had a negative trade balance for a very long time now, with no improvements on the horizon.

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 10, 2015, 07:51:49 PM

Greece will get kicked out of the EU. The EU is going to crumble because Greece is far from the only country in such economic dire straits. They are merely the first to default. These sovereign defaults will either take down many large European banks or usher in an era of massive currency devaluation. As nation after nation in the EU goes back to their own national currencies, Germany will find itself in a position of having nobody to sell it's goods to that has any money. Capital will flow in torrents into safe places, first Switzerland and England but later and in greater volume the USA.

This is completely wrong and demonstrates a clear lack of understanding of both European politics and European economics. Our institutions are complex and never straightforward. Even most Europeans don't understand them. You would do well to learn more about them before saying rediculous things like that.

Nevertheless: Greece will not be kicked out of the European Union. They will not leave the Eurozone or be kicked out of it. Leaving either the Eurozone or the Union would not absolve their debts. There will be more negotiations. A settlement will eventually be reached. The EU will continue to heavily subsidize Greece, which Greece is dependent on to survive. Their economy will take a turn for the worse but they'll still be better off than in any other situation.

As a whole, the EU is still running a trade surplus and is as such doing okay. Despite what you believe, Germany amounts to only 20% of the EU's economy and does not dominate European policy. This percentage is actually shrinking as eastern Europe developes. There is no massive currency devalutation nor is there one in the making. There isn't a single serious effort to reinstute national currencies, as not a single country would stand to benefit from it.

There is a whole lot of exaggeration when it comes to European economic and political instability (which is mostly just perception), and it seems you've fallen prey to it.

Euros just today are trading at 0.89/USD. That's a huge devaluation already and will be trading at par soon if this continues. As for defaults, that is effectively what happens when a country devalues it's currency (or re-institutes it's currency) and repays expensive money with cheap money. The U.S. Did it in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard. It's a soft default ( a hard default is when they simply don't repay at all).

I understand that the European financial and political situation is enormously complex, but I don't need to know all the ins and outs to see that a monetary union with no fiscal (much less political) union is untenable given the very different incentives and motivations of the various players. How long will German Taxpayers subsidize the profligacy of the South? If they take a haircut on Greek bonds, what's to stop the other peripheral countries from doing the same? It's as if a family has a problem child and if they show tough love the kid will rebel and run away, but if they go soft, they other children will rebel also, (correctly) perceiving the preferential treatment as favoritism.

This latest demand for WWII war reparations is just icing on the cake. Hardly any Germans living bear any responsibility for the Nazis. If I was a German, I'd rather burn my money than give it to Greece. Now supposedly they are cozying up to Russia as well so we can ad "disloyal" to "lazy" and "dishonest" as descriptors of Greeks. Germany and the other creditor nations won't cave. They can't or their electorates will (rightly) boot them out of office.

Germany is not that strong as many are thinking. "We" are a export-nation. Without a strong export the unemployment will rise hard. It's in german-interest to keep the south in the game because it could be the end of the Euro if south-states would leave. And that's why our government is in a weak position. They won't pay the demand for WW2 but they will make concessions. But, it's just playing time (delay the dynamic). It won't help long. It did not help in the past it won't stop the dynamic.