Quote from: JorgeStolfi on February 12, 2015, 06:22:41 PM

Here is an update of the plot of @jl2012's data that I posted last April:

[ Blame the forum admins if the image shows truncated; click on it for the full-size version. ]

The first four plots are taken from the posted tables.

The fifth plot ("Est. Accum. Investment", purple) was computed by me: it is the estimated net dollar amount that was invested by clients, assuming that each change from one day to the next was either all investment or (rarely) all liquidation. With this assumption, since the foundation until today, clients appear to have have invested ~68 M USD in the fund, while the value of all the bitcoins held by it is ~30 M USD.

Note the four large investments last November, corresponding to 6000-7000 BTC each.

So that's an average investment of about 136.000 USD/day since inception. While an inflation rate of 3600 BTC/day corresponds to 792.000 USD/day at todays prices.

So if their historical trend continues, it means that Secondmarket can be "expected" to buy about 17% of the daily minted coins.

Of course, your graph seems to suggest that the investment demand was a lot higher the first few months, and seems to have been fairly constant on average since about 2014. If I disregard the 2013 data I get an expected investment rate of about 10% of minted coins at todays prices.

I was just looking at the plots in your graph though, but I shouldn't be off by that much.