Quote from: Barney on February 20, 2015, 10:04:58 PM

Quote from: rpietila on February 19, 2015, 04:02:31 PM

Quote

Only in 2017-2018 when XMR is mostly mined can begin to sustain a long-term uptrend.

Untrue.

Enjoyed yours BTC EV analysis thread, do you have something similar for XMR?

Yeah, in 5 years XMR is about 18 million coins. The scenarios are really a matrix of [crypto total marketcap x XMR's share of it]. If we make the most positive case a 1000 times higher marketcap ($4,000 billion, 5 times Apple's marketcap) and work from there making each order of magnitude a scenario of its own, we get approximately the following for general crypto:

1) $4000 billion 5%

2) $400 billion 15%

3) $40 billion 25%

4) $4 billion 30% <- this is the current size of crypto, at the bottom of the pit.

5) $400 million. 25%

This is a very rough but useful classification.

Then, again very simplistically, XMR can command a large or small share of the market. Let's say:

1) 3/4 of the market (domination) 1%

2) 10% of the market (second coin) 4%

3) 1% of the market (alive) 10%

4) 0.1% of the market (unsettled) 15% <- this is the current position of XMR

5) 0% of the market (dead) 70%

Now just go and do the numbers

...
I did it myself, put all the 25 scenarios in a matrix for A) their probability B) their outcome.

By multiplying the outcomes with their probabilities we get the EV: $191/XMR.

Since we are now trading at $0.30, the EV is "large enough" to warrant the use of binary Kelly:

In this kind of situation, a rational gambler invests as many % of his kitty than is his chance of winning. About 25% of the scenarios are profitable, meaning that it is rational to invest 25% of the stash, unless even higher EV projects are competing of the money.

Note: 75% of the scenarios are losing. Still, this has a higher EV than Bitcoin, and is indeed the best investment that I have calculated the EV.