Quote from: forever-d on May 04, 2011, 01:06:10 PM

Quote from: robm on May 04, 2011, 12:05:11 PM

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Maybe I don't get it. But then I didn't get the "new paradigm" of the dot com bubble either. And I didn't lose money as a result.
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Bitcoin has applications for which it is uniquely suitable. There lies its potential IMO, not in competing with existing currencies and payment systems. It will enable new business models that could not have existed without Bitcoin and that will depend on Bitcoin. I agree that it may remain a niche currency, but I don't think it will ever disappear completely. Or a least it will be replaced by another p2p cryptocurrency.

It is very hard for us to imagine today what those business models might be, just like people could not have imagined in 1990 that Facebook is a viable business model. Perhaps Bitcoin will even evolve into something whos prime use isn't a currency at all.

As for the dot com bubble, the "new paradigm" did create real added value, this just took a longer time than most people expected, and the added value was grossly overestimated.

If you had invested in the right companies you would have made money.

Yes you're probably right. There might be some new business models that spring up. I just think its likely to stay in a small niche. And as for other p2p cryptocurrency, that might happen too. But people will only be able to deal with so many of these things at one time. Most people need simplicity in their lives, not dealing in 10 or 20 currencies.

Put another way, good money will drive out bad money. But to be good, money has to be usable when exchanging goods.

As to the dot com bubble, the value added came much later in most cases. A lot of money was squandered early on. (Not to mention the rank fraud of a lot of it.)

It's not much different to physical infrastructure. Someone invests in building a bridge, they often lose money. But the people living each side of the valley benefit from being able to visit each other. For most innovation and investment to happen, the people putting the money up need to have a decent likelihood of reasonable profit. There will always be exceptions of course.

And for every Facebook there are probably thousands of failures. Buying bitcoins is like buying stock in one of those thousands of startups. You might get a Facebook, but chances are you'll get a fat zero.