I believe that the ask wall on bitstamp at $300 (now around 4500 btc) that can be graphically viewed at http://bitcointicker.co/ represents the major repellor i.e. the "long-term" trend.

If we can break through this with even volume and the above conjecture is correct, we may not see prices below $300 for at least an entire wave cycle. (scale of months)


Thoughts on this are welcome.