Quote from: a1choi on March 15, 2015, 03:24:40 PM

Quote from: Bardman on March 15, 2015, 03:08:46 PM

Quote from: a1choi on March 15, 2015, 03:03:43 PM

Quote from: Bardman on March 15, 2015, 07:40:55 AM

If he is betting 1 btc each time, the expected profit in the long term is 0, how is he able to make 200.000 bitcoins? How is he able to win 200.000 more than loosing when the chances are 50/50? Makes no sense

He'd only need to double his coins 17.6 times to earn more than 200K coins starting from 1. The probability of that happening is 0.5^17.6 is 1/200000. Which means 1 out of 200000 people will encounter this. Doesn't seem too far fetched to me.

What do you mean double his coins? Double 1 btc 17.6 times? Like 1,2,4,8,16,32,64 ... ? Because if thats what you saying it would be impossible since casinos have a max bet so i still dont see how that is possible unless you explain yourself better

Looks like i didn't look at the simulation code. The code basically does a bet of 1 for each round (thus satisfying any concerns about max bet limits). And thus, the bettor was able to get a profit of 200k with only bets of 1. This might seem impossible, but it clearly isn't. I'm sure someone with better math skills that I have can figure out the probability of this happening, and it clearly is > 0.

The probability of this happening is much much smaller than 1/200000, but still larger than 0.

TLDR Minuscule probability doesn't mean impossible.

To get a profit of 200k with a 0% house edge? It pretty much means impossible