Quote from: XinXan on March 30, 2015, 01:11:02 PM

Quote from: ndnhc on March 30, 2015, 01:07:54 PM

Quote from: Darwerft on March 30, 2015, 01:01:37 PM

Quote from: neoneros on March 25, 2015, 11:23:26 AM

It is the reason why people lose their money. Martingale does not work. The goat behind the door does not care about previous choices and chances are reset every time you take a gamble. Unless it is rigged.

Imagine there were 1000 doors and there are goats behind all but one, you now choose door 1, the host opens all the other doors but number 1 and number 267.

Would you go with door number 1 or door number 267?

Do you think the goat cares?
If youd like to get that car, you better change to door 267 as motherfucking fast as you can.

Do you really believe there is a 50% chance still?

lol, if I am correct, I think the chances of winning are 999/1000 by picking door 267. Wink

the chances are 50% by picking the door 267 because you are choosing between 2 doors, 50/50
The chances are 1 / 1000 the first time you pick a door.

Not really, ndnhc is correct.
I would suggest you to take a look at http://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/.
Or you could make a simple simulation to check the probability yourself.