Quote from: rph on August 17, 2012, 03:20:28 AM

I really like the general idea, but, with a constant price and an enormous supply of shares on both sides -
I see no rational reason to buy this until shortly before "judgement day".

-rph

Yeah this is why this is horribly organised. As it stands BFL coul announce they won't be able to ship until November (guaranteeing the .fail stock wins) and people could still continue buying more .fail stocks right up until all were sold - meaning no real profit for anyone who actually invested at the start.

I'd suggest if/when nefario unlocks the account, no further shares are sold - so at least those who have bought shares so far get a fair bet.

The correct way to do this would have been to issue a relatively small number of each share (identical for both) then sell them into bid-walls at a predefined date/time (with a minimum value of 0.001 or whatever per share). All cash raised would then be dividended (less fee) to the winning share at end of october.

Shares in both sides of the bet could then be actively traded all the way up to settlement as new information emerged - with one zeroing and the other reaching a value equal to (total capital raised - fees)/total shares of both issues once information emerged settling it conclusively one way or the other. That would have encouraged early speculation, ongoing speculation and also removed the possibility of shares being issued to self/friends by Diablo once the result was known. It would also have added liquidity for speculators.

Nice idea - terrible execution.