Quote from: inca on April 13, 2015, 06:02:27 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on April 13, 2015, 05:39:20 PM

Quote from: inca on April 13, 2015, 05:08:15 PM

Lots of talk from bears who are also losing money on their leveraged positions every day. I say talk because you have already sold or shorted - all you can do is yap or buy the price higher if the market turns.

Waiting for someone else to sell the price lower for you because line on a chart points down. Worked in 2011, right Xiao?

But it's not just a "line on a chart that points down" though.

It's bid sum still being ridiculously low (and still decreasing, while at the end of the 2013 bear market bid sum went nuts, and price clearly followed for example), it's decreasing volume on all exchanges since January (again, after a real capitulation like in 2013, the recovery should be panic buying on progressively increasing volume), the fact that the actual volume on the $150 bottom wasn't all that amazing (on chinese exchanges they are almost a standard volume bar), the fact that overall volume measured in USD in lower than in the 300-400 area especially on chinese exchanges, EW analysis, value of daily mined coins, short term (and also long term) support trend lines broken, recent weak price action etc.

And these are just the technicals.

You seem to have a particular liking for the mythical bidsum without coming clean that the visible order books are a mirage..

I have asked you before but you ignored it.

How much fiat is sat on the exchanges or in hidden bid orders?

And yes technicals are simply 'line on a chart points down or up' however you want to dress it up!

Painting the dance between the longs and shorts as being won currently by shorts is a little silly, lots more money backing the long position, and only a little more and shorts will cover - retail is shorting bitcoin right now, whilst real whales accumulate.

I remember but I actually answered that Tongue

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on March 19, 2015, 07:18:18 PM

Quote from: inca on March 19, 2015, 06:52:55 PM

Edit: and how do you know how much money is sat on exchanges but not on the orderbook? Point us at a post where you predicted the november 2013 bubble!

Yes money sitting on the bids is not necessarily the money sitting on the exchange, but:

1: bid sum is an excellent predictor of BTC prices. History shows that the two are very well correlated. If it's price that contributes to a rise in bid sum or the other way around is irrelevant.
2: what we are interested in is how much demand changes, not necessarily in absolute terms. So changes in bid sum over time should give us a good indication of how much money in total (even if not sitting on the books) sitting on the exchange changes too.

(...)

Also:

Quote from: inca on April 13, 2015, 06:02:27 PM

Painting the dance between the longs and shorts as being won currently by shorts is a little silly, lots more money backing the long position, and only a little more and shorts will cover - retail is shorting bitcoin right now, whilst real whales accumulate.

How can you say that? "retail is short and whales accumulate longs"? <- This is just an assumption.

Longs have always been a lot more than shorts on bitfinex since forever.

Few months ago longs were at $30 million as price heavily crashed (and never went back to previous levels again), so if all those longers were basically whales ("while the reail were short"), it sounds like the whales got owned by the retail, no? Can't really rely on them whales then Grin

No but seriously, the quantity of longs under current market conditions is just bearish, and I'm pretty sure there is a similar proportion of whales VS "retail" among both shorters and longers.