I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities.

I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017.

So yes, both are possibilities.

What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%.

I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further!