Quote from: rpietila on April 24, 2015, 10:59:46 AM

Quote from: Anon136 on April 24, 2015, 06:06:47 AM

Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on April 24, 2015, 05:55:24 AM

I hate to say this but sub 0.001 is now a possibility.

0.000 is a possibility. so what. no risk no reward.

I quite recently spent a lot of time constructing a framework for the possibilities and their probabilities.

I actually got 61% for the scenario that we are much lower than 0.001 in the end of 2017.

So yes, both are possibilities.

What I sincerely hope to be interesting, is the methodology for quantifying the possible gains, and making strategies. I think it's not far away from the truth that the EV of the gain is 3700%, and when personal utility is taken into account (hitting really big is not linearly as useful as hitting somewhat big), it is still in the order of 400%.

I get it that most of you are here not to maximize gains anyway, but if anyone is, let's develop the thing further! Wink

I have been working on an assessment of the possibility of offshore funds moving into this (or another) private untraceable asset class and the effects on the price of those assets. Ie trying to calculate expected value. Even if you assign very very modest percentages to that probability and the share which ends up moving in, an incredible EV is the outcome.

The amounts of wealth being hidden offshore is just immense. Just the top 30 US companies account for a staggering 1,199,879,000,000$ (1.2 trillion) in 2014. http://ctj.org/pdf/offshoreshell2014.pdf An incomprehensible figure, and mind you, this is just the top 30 of companies. There are thousands of companies and individuals hiding wealth in those taxhavens. Estimates go as high as 32 trillion. And this was just in 2012! Imagine what that figure is now, with the excessive monetairy expansions in the US, Japan, EU etc.

With the current budget deficits of virtually every government (sponsored by superlow interestrates created by the CB's) whilst (casually) trying to be solved with austerity or taxhikes on the one hand, and this excessive hiding of wealth on the other is a growing and dangerous disequilibrium. Once taken to far (and it's rapidly evolving that way) it will agressively flip and turn. Study history and you see this happening over and over again. What will happen to all of that stored wealth? Nobody knows, but chances are that some of it will be converted to a private untraceable asset class which has the properties of a scarce commodity, with the transferability of a mainstream currency.

In the topic earlier it was asked what will happen at 2015.75 and that is, for me at least, the trillion dollar question