Quote from: rpietila on April 26, 2015, 09:18:11 AM

Quote from: BlockaFett on April 26, 2015, 01:04:46 AM

So quite easy to predict the Monero price based on what a few whales are doing and all via Poloniex? That explains why on the price chart there are never any big movements, the whale's buy walls moving up and down are too big for lots of small users. And it suggests XMR distribution is a few mega-whales and lots of small holders, but I haven't seen any stats on what XMR distribution actually looks like?

Such a distribution cannot be produced by free-market mechanisms. Same as you crushed dried black peppers and got only flour and whole peppers as a result. There necessarily is the middle size (coarse) fraction at any given time, for the reason that it is the requisite path between these two ends. The mass fraction of the coarse can be modelled statistically in the same way as distribution of the coins.

In Monero, the big holders, since they did not have instamine, have needed to accumulate their stashes over a long time, piecewise. I am one of them and there is no collusion that I know of, in the accumulation, it is wolf against wolf, instead of in the pack. The anonymity of the market renders collusion impossible as frontrunning has no penalty.

The same is the reason that middle-size holders exist in XMR. Everyone who has become big was middle-size first (I was middle-size for several months before started accumulating more); (almost) everyone who is big and wants to cash out, will become middle-sized before selling out (if this even happens! It is not a smart move from diversification standpoint).

I have derived XMR distribution charts purely from theoretical/statistical premises and they can be accessed in Economics.

Quote from: rpietila on April 09, 2015, 01:28:39 PM

Code:

25130 7314743
b_min b_max b_avg #owners XMRtot
367002 734003 519019 1 519019
183501 367002 259509 2 519019
91750 183501 129755 4 519019
45875 91750 64877 8 519019
22938 45875 32439 16 519019
11469 22938 16219 32 519019
5734 11469 8110 64 519019
2867 5734 4055 128 519019
1434 2867 2027 256 519019
717 1434 1014 512 519019
358 717 507 1126 570921
179 358 253 2253 570921
90 179 127 3604 456736
45 90 63 4686 296879
22 45 32 4686 148439
11 22 16 3604 57092
6 11 8 2253 17841
3 6 4 1126 4460
1 3 2 512 1014
0 1 1 256 253

As you quoted, this is based on a completely desktop-statistical methodology relying on the assumptions that XMR distribution is a market phenomenon. For pre/insta/nonmineable coins this is not at all true. I believe it is true for XMR since I know its history.

Quote from: smooth on April 26, 2015, 01:24:21 AM

I don't really see a good case that Monero is more influenced by whales than any other coin. They all have their whales.

The coin whose distribution is the closest to the "natural distribution" (above postulated to apply to Monero), has the most "surface" to counter manipulation attempts, the largest liquidity, smallest supply/demand shock price inelasticity, and lowest volatility.

Quote from: Kuriso on April 26, 2015, 03:17:31 AM

Really? You don't see a good case for Monero's manipulation? Sure all coins have whales. Its probably the same ones in every coin but I know you've been in the tollbox enough to know better than that. How many times have whales told people to buy because we will never see this price again and then they dump that shit right on their minion's heads. Then again they tell you suckers to buy. 'We're never going below .0034 again'. Hurry up and buy your cheap coins. Then BAM. Dump that shit.

When your king was busy with his game. People wanted to know where their support was. Why are the walls gone? How low can we go? He said he was too busy to worry about the price. He wasn't going to support it. People could dump it to whatever and he wouldn't care. He was too busy to keep the walls up. At one point he claimed that at any given time he controlled atleast 1/3 of both sides of the board. That's a lot of influence if you ask me.

I will say that this activity has slowed down over the last few months but 6+ months ago it was running rampant. Your monero whales were very vocal about their market control and manipulation. Many of you will not call it that so spin it however you want but it wont change the fact that monero is controlled by just a few people.

Show me another coin that has well known whales not just fanboys and minions doing this same activity openly in a trollbox.

Some thoughts in no particular order:

- My advice in the trollbox is seldom applicable to the daytraders, because it is based on an infinite-term mindset while their timeframe is a month at most.

- Being open about market manipulation, means that it is exposed, and is easier to spot and neutralize. The downside risk is that you get the idea that Monero is somehow worse than other coins, because the manipulation is admitted.

The premine groups in other coins are not open about their actions, and you don't notice them, and consequently think these coins are fairer. There are many midsize/big coins that are (allegedly) complete shells, eg. Litecoin. BCN is an example of a coin that shows to have some volume, but my analysis shows that 90%+ of the meager volume is fake. BCN marketcap will at some point be pushed to incredible heights at incredible volume (all faked, because no one at all owns it), and there always are suckers who join to any pump out of ignorance.

- My ability to influence XMR is a consequence of my having wealth both in and outside XMR. I am just a spokesman of a large group of XMR whales, the others prefer to not spend their time trolling about their ability to influence the markets. I will tell it because I have spent years of my life investing in stocks and trading them very unsuccessfully, I so much would have liked to receive free, truthful and actionable advice from the King, but didn't, and needed to learn all by myself.

- The markets work such that the +EV short term action is towards reducing volatility. You can prove it for yourself by setting up a bot that aims to increase volatility and the other one decrease it. The latter one actually makes you money after fees, obviously the first one does not, as it is the counterparty of the latter.

The above is so clear already after about 7 years of experience in university economics and online trading. But I forget that not all have it! Therefore they misunderstand the "manipulation" context and think that it is somehow an activity where you can make money by rocking the boat. No, merely being rich is not manipulation, otherwise all rich people and all owners who hold 1% or more of anything would be manipulators and all banks and all governments would be...

- Trollbox is a place for trolling, not for taking heed of the trading advice given there by strangers

My last comment, but sleeping on it I think need to say my conclusion after yesterday.

Anyone can spend 1 hr on Poloniex and see the obvious Monero price manipulation. This is very bad for Monero for 2 main reasons:

1.. Like another user said above, people are getting ripped off. I saw Warz say he sold at .004 - well evidently he pumped it there, and a lot of small / noob investors are bag holder, while he can lower the price and recharge his balances and repeat again. And the people saying this happens with Dash, there is a whale Otoh on Cryptsy but he just adds a buy wall and leaves it there and when he does he posts it on the thread. The Monero walls are *always* there and are being moved around constantly. Some people obviously feel like they *own* Monero and it's there *opportunity* to make some serious $ off of it because they are a lot bigger than anyone else and everything goes via Polo/Polo troll box. You saying there is no way for people to get that much XMR, well maybe they bought it over the last 6 months when the price was nothing, seeing it on Poloniex, and planning for this to happen? Like how did XMR come to be on the Polo landing page and get it's own markets box, why they decide to do that when it's not even on any other big exchange or if it is no one trades it there?

2.. True reflection of Monero value - yesterday the whales were talking about how "Monero can't go below 0.0023" - why? Answer: Because they are manipulating the price *to a narrative* on BCT Monero threads / Polo trollbox, that "Dash is a scam and Monero will replace Dash!!!". Compare the 2 charts - this narrative holds if Monero stays above 0.0023. But if it breaks down, its this narrative that also breaks and these whales golden paycheck is undermined. And *thats* why there is so much slandering of Dash by XMR community. That is the sales pitch, and the less experienced members not used to using critical thinking just parrot it without really understand why or how speculative and pathetic it looks (same as anything originating from a trollbox on an exchange like Polo) - it doesn't matter to them, because slandering Dash is *required* so the whales can use Dash price chart and the 'fact that it' a scam!' to push small investors around on Poloniex.

So my price prediction now....the whales will do everything they possible to keep Monero "in the game" and above 0.0023. It will only go below that if enough small investors sell, or the whales decided to let it dump because either they think the "Dash is a scam and Monero is the next Dash" narrative can survive it (or they pull out which at this stage they can't because they are heavily invested in it)

So actually quite bullish for Monero...but not for the right reasons.

Lastly - "The premine groups in other coins are not open about their actions" - if you are trying to deflect this to Dash, bare in mind it's on a lot of big exchanges that don't have a big trollbox in the middle of every page, and extremely difficult to manipulate between them and with regular big movements / normal patterns on the charts, says a lot that you dismiss the research I did and try to swap places with Dash like that....and you are part of a large whale group? How interesting?

Not FUD, this is what I found, for those that care about XMR fix this sh*t...and for those of you who claim to be "fighting scams" and now calling Dash a "premine" while Monero whales on Poloniex are using this kind of BS posted 100s of times again and again to shake $ out of less experienced people's pockets daily and build up their golden crypto-paycheque ...fix this sh*t too.

Cheers

EDIT:

Translation: "It depends on what the Dash price is and then what I decide to do..."

And the last comment, what is the "surprise"? When they cash out, where will the BTC go? Which coin do they seem to want to have the lowest price? ...speculation of course.