Quote from: btcbobby on April 27, 2015, 09:47:41 PM

Quote from: johnyj on April 27, 2015, 12:17:49 PM

The truth is, if everyone use bitcoin to save for retirement, then bitcoin will rise to at least millions per coin, thus make that pension plan a huge success, it is just a matter of time before major institutions start to dive in. Currently lots of private person already started to do private long term savings using bitcoin

For 5 years performance, bitcoin beats every single investment in human history when it comes to risk adjusted return: With a 1% risk you get 100% return. And typically for a successful investment, with 1% risk you get 3% return. So from the view of a pension fund (they typically measure 10+ years performance of any investment), this is the top choice, just need regulation to be in place

Lol. You're funny.

Citing 5 year returns makes things look marvelous, never mind that barely anyone on this forum was here back then, and the huge returns you cite were only achievable because Bitcoin started from nothing, where even rising in price to a dollar a coin would yield phenomenal returns statistics. Plus, by zooming out to 5 years, you get to pretend that bitcoins on an ever increasing upward trajectory,and that its been a phenomenal investment year in and year out. Never mind the last 16 or so months,never mind thAt BTC was at the absolute bottom of investment results last year.

But yeah, somehow thee entire world is going to hop into BTC, I'm sure...

That 1:100 risk/reward ratio only counts from the end of 2012 to the end of 2014, just 24 months. If you think 5 years time is not enough, you might also think 10 years time is not enough, you should wait 20 years before you confirm its success, but by then you will lose most of the potential gain from it

Actually the decision making difficulty is almost the same when bitcoin is at $0.03 or $3 or $300, you always face an uncertain future and ridiculous price, and large wild swing of exchange rate, so that you never know for sure if one day you wake up and find out it just crashed 90%. That's the reason a pension fund should never allocate more than 1% of its funds, but that is like buying a lottery with 50% chance of getting the value of your whole portfolio doubled, almost a no-brainer buy

And the worst performance of 2014 is definitely not bitcoin. If you adjust the volatility of other investment to be the same as bitcoin, then their performance will be much worse: A 90% retracement of bitcoin comes after a gain of 100X, but a 90% retracement of crude oil, comes as a result of a gain of only 2x (when you adjust the crude price by 2x leverage)