It occurred to me that there is a simple way to predict the price of bitcoin.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
Start with the equation V = U + R*P, where
V is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) disbursed by new investors (in $/day);
U is the amount of money (or money equivalent of goods and services) collected by holders who are divesting ($/day;
R is the block reward volume, now 3600 (BTC/day); and
P is the current price ($/BTC).
From that we get P = (V - U)/R.
Now you only need to predict V and U.
You have invested in a pyramid and come up with some formulas??? Come on!! Open your eyes. This ship will sink. I said it when it was above 1000 dollars, and I will say it again at 200 dollars.
Of course you come here celebrating your "prediction". The question is, will you be here admitting defeat once BTC goes back up, or will you quietly disappear until another bubble burst cycle happens claiming to be a magician that predicts the future? duh.