except very short-term possibility of price decrease due to BTCST drama there is nothing else suggesting price should be decreasing mid-term
What exactly should cause a short-term price drop, and how?
I think currently people have a lot of USDs in the exchanges. Short-term (1-2 weeks) I'd tend to assume that the price will be stable, or maybe even go up/rally.
on contrary market confidence is strong, there is continuing exposure of bitcoin related topics in the media which keeps building momentum for another possibility to rally, VC talks, ASICs, reward halving... we're going up or at the very least keeping stable $9-12 range
Until mid-December 800K more Bitcoins are mined. To keep the price at $10, somebody has to spend 8 Million USD to buy them. I may be wrong, but I don't see where this money should come from, without people handing in their paychecks to invest in a HYIP. I agree that media coverage increases demand. And I also think that reward halving is a stabilizing factor. Without that, I'd predict a stronger down trend.
Don't get me wrong. Long-term I expect a massive up trend (with a small chance for a total collapse, e.g. because of advances in cryptanalysis). But medium-term I'd still assume a correction.
How exactly would ASICs effect the Bitcoin price? I would assume "not at all", no?