Quote from: 0mzUBBru on August 23, 2012, 10:14:35 PM

Quote from: Serge on August 23, 2012, 05:39:11 PM

except very short-term possibility of price decrease due to BTCST drama there is nothing else suggesting price should be decreasing mid-term

What exactly should cause a short-term price drop, and how?

I think currently people have a lot of USDs in the exchanges. Short-term (1-2 weeks) I'd tend to assume that the price will be stable, or maybe even go up/rally.

Once pirate starts releasing lenders' funds there may be a rush some of these coins to exchanges, if this is what market anticipates that's what will happen; current bid depth backs this anticipation.

Quote from: 0mzUBBru on August 23, 2012, 10:14:35 PM

Quote from: Serge on August 23, 2012, 05:39:11 PM

on contrary market confidence is strong, there is continuing exposure of bitcoin related topics in the media which keeps building momentum for another possibility to rally, VC talks, ASICs, reward halving... we're going up or at the very least keeping stable $9-12 range

Until mid-December 800K more Bitcoins are mined. To keep the price at $10, somebody has to spend 8 Million USD to buy them. I may be wrong, but I don't see where this money should come from, without people handing in their paychecks to invest in a HYIP. I agree that media coverage increases demand. And I also think that reward halving is a stabilizing factor. Without that, I'd predict a stronger down trend.

Don't get me wrong. Long-term I expect a massive up trend (with a small chance for a total collapse, e.g. because of advances in cryptanalysis). But medium-term I'd still assume a correction.

That's assuming that all these new mined coins end up on exchanges right away. I don't believe it to be true. More so following your logic we should be in constant price decline ever since Bitcoin creation since all there coins needs to be bought and we are in a strong inflationary phase.

there were no bitcoin HYIP talks outside of this forum and very few recent articles in the media about it, I think it is safe to assume HYIPs weren't a major factor in driving new money to exchanges, although I do believe that pirate's operation took away good portion of speculative funds out of exchanges causing deficit in supply and driving prices up but I wouldn't give all credit for the recent rally to pirate as there were a lot of mention of Bitcoin outside this community past few months.

Quote from: 0mzUBBru on August 23, 2012, 10:14:35 PM

How exactly would ASICs effect the Bitcoin price?

ASICs will have overall positive effect on the network providing greater security and confirming to the rest of the world that Bitcoin isn't just some hobbyist geeky play money. Difficulty along with reward halving will also influence the price even though there is no direct correlation between difficulty and the price.