Quote from: ensurance982 on May 05, 2015, 04:36:07 PM

Quote from: Chainsaw on May 05, 2015, 04:09:04 PM

The spread narrowed, but things have hit a relative standstill at 300 shares traded volume. Yesterday was 762.
The only sellers are
a) New BIT holders releasing their shares, a one time shot, after a 12 month holding period
b) Speculators that bought GBTC on Day 1.

The low volume suggests that at most 3 new sellers have pulled the trigger today, with $55 asks offering a 233% premium.

I have 50 more shares up at $133.7. The GBTC page http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GBTC/quote shows nothing below $175.

I speculate this game of chicken will resolve with volume staying low, positive Bid pressure. Those Bids will eventually pull more sellers out. Then we will have a bootstrap of liquidity - new buyers with varying entry prices. Those respective buyers will then make various decisions and help dial in to a true equilibrium, with a positive price trend.

Even if those sell, I would be holding the final 1/3rd of my shares.

Highly interesting! It's incredible to see that people really paying this steep markup! I can't really comprehend it, actually. I think the number of people who can sell their shares is too low to make price discovery or an impact on the general BTC price possible for the time being, though.

That's sort of the chicken/egg problem. Nobody wants to participate until they know where the price will settle, no activity, question remains.
Motivating actors to 'beat' you in a market, tightening the spread, is a good first step.

Because of the combination of a stranglehold on new liquidity, unfavorable prices (from their perspective, selling at these prices is a loss), and OTC rules keeping small volume bids and asks from showing up, the effect is magnified. There is a multitude of small Bids and Asks which appear neither in the historical data nor the current quote list.

I expect liquidity to slowly increase. Once a share gets 'into the wild', they are more freely tradable. Those free coins grow at exactly the rate that the BIT holders are compelled to release their funds. The only variable which will shift their desire from HODL to SELL will be reaching a favorable price.

This could resolve by a very long period of dead, no-volume activity - a stalemate.
Or it could resolve by continued upward Bid price pressure.

The volume need only increase to the degree that the common tools used by traders begin providing an accurate and complete picture of the historical price data and current activity.
I view getting to that level of volume as the first step.
Only then will the price differential between GBTC and other markets begin to entangle and affect each other.