Quote from: chriswen on May 07, 2015, 03:25:53 AM

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It's too easy and seemingly obvious that everyone has their hearts set on the halving before anything major changes but we all know this market does its own thing regardless. Newer options to bring in higher net worth types can instill new demand which is what drives the price so I'd bet we get a decent rally sometime in the fall and perhaps another mega rally leading up to the halving.

It's a hard mathematical thing with known consequences. After the halving it will cost twice as much in electricity to produce a bitcoin. Prices will go up or the network will weaken, there are no other options. And with all the money flowing in, it seems unlikely it will be allowed to collapse altogether.

I guess what I meant is that I've been seeing so many people mention that the halving will be the salvation from this bear market in and of itself. I'm well aware that coinage will immediately become scarcer by 50% upon the halving but I was insinuating that other tools will becoming into the market that will drive the price bullish prior to and perhaps w/ full knowledge of the upcoming halving.

Exactly, the exact consequences and procedure is crystal clear. The market, on the other hand, is anything but that. It will already be priced in now - to a small degree, of course. And it will be priced in over the following months after the halving. Just take a look at how the last halving took place, I think that's a good and valid reference point.

Right, markets generally look ahead 6 months to a year, so the halving will be priced in long before it actually occurs.

Yeah well the halvening was supposed to be priced in last time also and we ended up having a massive bull rally.

You could very well argue though, that those rallies (in 2013) were caused by Gox going under, and probably even their infamous Willy bot buying all the coins for them (for whatever reason). I guess it'll be a mixture of some kind.