Quote from: CryForMeSky on May 09, 2015, 06:26:57 PM

Quote from: Bralex on May 09, 2015, 08:31:12 AM

Quote from: magicmexican on May 09, 2015, 08:28:28 AM

Quote

I understand the negative EV thing, but I really do think that discipline and controlling your emotions can help you come out ahead in the long run.

No, you dont.

Anyone want to side bet on how long it will take for OP to get broke in his journey?

If you give me a time scale you think he will go broke, I will bet against as a long shot?

Well there's two factors...the math and the mentality. If he truly has a .4BTC bankroll and is only risking .01BTC max per session, it's going to take a long time to bust. Even if he's betting many times his deposit with a martingale based system, his projected loss per session is still pretty tiny...assuming he's super disciplined, it would take him ~800 days to go bust (mathematically). So any time frame under three years would be basically betting on if he starts tilting after a couple losses and punts his entire bankroll and/or gets fed up with the whole thing and just leaves. If I were to set a fair line, it would probably be in the 18 month range, if we assume everything he says (about bankroll, how much he puts on, and the goal of staying disciplined) has been true AND if "he quits without busting" counts as a win for the "bust" bettors.

That would actually be pretty cool if my supporters and doubters could bet on whether or not I'll go bust. I'd be willing to cooperate, and help set some rules, if you'd like. And we could get escrow involved as well.