Quote from: spud21 on May 18, 2015, 11:11:02 PM

So you think it could go down a bit more, then return to exactly the same price it has been at for most of this week?

Well I think (or hope heh) it will more likely be followed by a large (C)-wave up to $260-level that will conclude the entire rise/correction from $215. In other words, my primary local count atm is that the aforementioned potential next wave down should terminate v of (c) of E (in case of chess' expanding triangle) of (B), after which we should see the second, impulsive half of the larger correction up. However, this is but the personal opinion of a sheep, and there are many other ways it could develop if we even bounce at all.

I guess (think?) it is also possible the bounce will be corrective to a major trend down, in that case probably 4 of (1) of III or something, which would likely retrace to $235-$238 i.e. same price level we've been at for the last week as you mention, after which we get more down. I don't find this scenario very plausible (and perhaps not even valid), and my gut tells me the larger rise isn't over yet, but the question of which alternative will play out doesn't matter too much right now as it can be better determined later once the bounce actually occurs by looking at its subwave structure. What I am fairly certain of at this point though is that there should be a bounce soon and that it could potentially be very strong, hence my warning about shorting here.

A rough illustration, with my preferred alternative in white/green and a possible count for Wave III scenario in red:

Note that the pic is not so detailed and subwave labels, especially around (a) - (b), are approximate and may be off. The count is rather messy as I'm struggling with confidently identifying the exact wave form and position at places, which admittedly also increases the possibility that I'm completely wrong lol, so take it as you will.