Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 21, 2015, 03:34:11 PM

Quote from: Norway on May 21, 2015, 03:32:28 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 21, 2015, 03:22:33 PM

Quote from: Norway on May 21, 2015, 03:19:20 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 21, 2015, 03:03:47 PM

Some might think that price is gonna stay in a long period of consolidation/sideways like it happened in 2012, but the sudden drastic decrease in volume lately suggests that a big move is coming IMHO. It should be imminent. I'm gonna monitor the trend lines I posted a few days ago and I will long the breakout/short the breakdown.

Arguments for down: decreasing volume since january bottom (trend reversals should have increasing volume and enormous prolonged buying pressure), decreasing and low bid sum (especially considering daily inflation), overall bearish price structure since the $150 bottom, if this bear market behaves like the 2011 one the bubble should deflate almost completely to reach $60-$80 in a few months (which would be the same percentage of retracement of the $32 to 2$ bubble), BTC swaps still atrociously high, the long term support trend lines are being already slowly tested and breached while the resistance ones are barely touched, EW theory counts (ask the EW guys, I do't know much about EW).

Arguments for up: Overall slight seller exhaustion lately, the drops don't have much follow through in this choppiness, signs of accumulation (although we might have already passed or be in distribution already), increased confidence because of good news (nasdaq experimenting with the blockchain and all that shit) lately.

I think the bearish arguments are stronger and technicals are more important than news, but wait for confirmation and a definitive break with volume in either direction.
If despite the decreased volume and signs of a big move coming we just stay sideways, that would be boring AF lol
In that case I'm gonna forget about BTC for a few months and get involved again only when another breakout/breakdown no brainer setup appears.

My 2 satoshis.

So it's going up, down or sideways? Wow, that TA shit is powerful! Wink

If price breaks the resistance trend lines you go long, if you break the support trend lines you go short, if volume confirms a move in either direction. You wait for confirmation and you follow the trend that just established.

What is it that you don't understand?

TA is not something that tells you if price is going up or down at any random point in the chart. Most of the time it allows you to time the market and give you setups. "If price goes to target X, do this, if it goes to target Y, do that". "If it behaves in that way at a specific target, do X, if it behaves differently, do Y".
etc

Don't worry. If you prefer to drive your car looking in the rear mirror, it's ok with me Wink

Ok, so what do you use to know when to buy, hold or sell?

News/fundamentals? Would have worked out great in 2014...

I admit that I can't predict the short term future. It's important to know what you don't know. So I don't daytrade, I'm in it for the long run. I have done my own calculations about bitcoins potential as global money, and I think the odds for bitcoin to succeed are good. My gut feeling based on all the stuff I read about bitcoin is 80% chance of success Wink