Quote from: YourMother on May 21, 2015, 05:09:00 PM

Quote from: Wandererfromthenorth on May 21, 2015, 03:03:47 PM

Some might think that price is gonna stay in a long period of consolidation/sideways like it happened in 2012, but the sudden drastic decrease in volume lately suggests that a big move is coming IMHO. It should be imminent. I'm gonna monitor the trend lines I posted a few days ago and I will long the breakout/short the breakdown.

Arguments for down: decreasing volume since january bottom (trend reversals should have increasing volume and enormous prolonged buying pressure), decreasing and low bid sum (especially considering daily inflation), overall bearish price structure since the $150 bottom, if this bear market behaves like the 2011 one the bubble should deflate almost completely to reach $60-$80 in a few months (which would be the same percentage of retracement of the $32 to 2$ bubble), BTC swaps still atrociously high, the long term support trend lines are being already slowly tested and breached while the resistance ones are barely touched, EW theory counts (ask the EW guys, I do't know much about EW).

Arguments for up: Overall slight seller exhaustion lately, the drops don't have much follow through in this choppiness, signs of accumulation (although we might have already passed or be in distribution already), increased confidence because of good news (nasdaq experimenting with the blockchain and all that shit) lately.

I think the bearish arguments are stronger and technicals are more important than news, but wait for confirmation and a definitive break with volume in either direction.
If despite the decreased volume and signs of a big move coming we just stay sideways, that would be boring AF lol
In that case I'm gonna forget about BTC for a few months and get involved again only when another breakout/breakdown no brainer setup appears.

My 2 satoshis.

As soon as i finished reading the bolded section, the rest of the text suddenly became unreadable. I lol'd, i scroll'd and i continued with my life. Your unintentional comedy brightened my day,

lol what an arrogant fuck.

Here's a serious answer tho:

Consistent but drastic decreases in volume are usually an indication of a big move coming (either up or down, but relatively violent ones), as showed here (plenty of other examples):

Currently volume gradually and drastically dried up on all exchanges, even chinese ones (note the consistent but drastic decrease):

Here's the volume profile of the long sideways movement in 2012 I was talking about:

My point was: If price is about to experience a long (several months) of sideways because accumulation/distribution like in 2012, that's not the volume we would probably see.

Edit: changed "gradual" with "consistent". What I meant is a decrease in volume with a predictable pace (a clear slope)