calculate how many coins you can mint its simple:
coin amount / 100 x 3 = yearly minting50000 FAIR can become 51500 after a year at 3%, on february 2 of 2016 minting reward half to 1,5%.
to calculate minting reward on age base:
yearly minting / 365 x age of transaction = age base minting
50000 FAIR can mint after 21 days 86 FAIR
Probability is related to many factors:
amount of coins, age of transaction and minting difficulty you can check here for difficulty
https://chain.fair-coin.org/rt/connected-nodes.htmlmany open wallets means more competition and higher difficulty, the more days pass higher is probability until you reach the maximum weight after 90 days.
Thanks Jack for the good explanation. I'd only add that we'll never reach the 1.5% reward phase, because there will be no minting (=staking ) any more in FairCoin 2.0.