Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 08:40:11 AM

Quote from: pinky on May 31, 2015, 07:49:55 AM

Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 07:06:59 AM

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.

Thanks for the analysis, appreciate it. I got one little remark, after 0.0043 is broken, we will still stumble upon 2 heavy resistances, 0.0051 & 0.0058 (which were previous tops). If these two get broken as well, we might see 0.01 indeed.