Quote from: Hura on June 10, 2015, 04:26:02 PM

Quote from: siwakotisaurav on June 10, 2015, 03:44:45 PM

The title pretty much explains it,
What is your biggest losing streak at martingale which you won in the end?

If you're looking for a math answer... use this formula to find the odds:

p = 1 - 0.505 ^ x and q = 1 - p

where:

"p" = is the odds that you win at least 1 time in "x" rolls

"1" = 100%

"x" = number of rolls

"0.505" = is the odds that you lose each roll (you can change with your lose chance)

"q" = is the odds that you bust after "x" rolls (you never won in "x" rolls)

So, if you're playing at dice, like i think is

, at 49.5% winning chance (and 50.5% you're losing)...
which is your odds to bust after 20 rolls?

p = 1 - 0.505 ^ 20 = 0.9999988363361 = 99.99988 % (you win at least 1 time in 20 rolls)

q = 1 - p = 0.0000011636639 = 0.000116 % (you never won in 20 rolls... you BUST)

it means that it happens one times every 1 / q = 859,354.662

Grin

Good luck

Hura, my new friend, that is by far one of the best posts I've ever read in this forum. You took math and explained it in such a way that just about anyone could understand it and more importantly even take notes and apply it. Very well said, Hura. I am taking note of your explanation and will use this to better understand probabilities. Thank you.

Edit: And to speak to the OP but also tie in Hura's comment: I am currently observing two losing streaks of 22 out of about 214,000 rolls. So it may be mathematically correct that you should not expect to see such large loss streaks but the reality is that it can happen much sooner than once in 859K+ rolls. In my recent experience I've seen bigger losing streaks in one-quarter the amount of predicted rolls.