On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX. This surprises me more than a bit. My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of. Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple. Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.
Right before the '08 crisis started gold dropped a bit even though risk/volatility were rising. The reason is simple, in a debt based money system during a liquidity crisis the market becomes constrained for the cash needed to pay off debt owed. The result is the market needs to sell what it can in order to raise cash to pay off debt. This causes everything to drop (including gold) against cash as entities sell assets to raise funds.
In other words based on '08 behavior,
gold unexpectedly dropping during a period of higher levels of risk (which shouldn't happen) is an indication of a coming liquidity crisis. The problem this time is the CBs already have rates at zero and Ctrl+P turned on. They are painted in a corner this time with only fiat destruction as the way out. I have a little of GLD left in my gold portion, this as reminded me to sell that and get physical now.
Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain. It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters. Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me. Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in. Or any number of other things may be going on.