Quote from: tvbcof on June 29, 2015, 11:22:36 PM

Quote from: rocks on June 29, 2015, 10:28:43 PM

Quote from: tvbcof on June 29, 2015, 09:39:54 PM

On topic (for about the first time in my long and sordid career here)... I gotta say that PM's today are at there sucky low levels in spite of a decline in the USDX. This surprises me more than a bit. My sense is that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and I'm inclined to be prepared for anything as a result of the grexit or threat there-of. Thankfully I don't have to worry about a lot of other 'vestments since I deliberately keep my 'portfolio' pretty simple. Were I not to do so I imagine that I might have some trouble sleeping over the next block of time.

Right before the '08 crisis started gold dropped a bit even though risk/volatility were rising. The reason is simple, in a debt based money system during a liquidity crisis the market becomes constrained for the cash needed to pay off debt owed. The result is the market needs to sell what it can in order to raise cash to pay off debt. This causes everything to drop (including gold) against cash as entities sell assets to raise funds.

In other words based on '08 behavior, gold unexpectedly dropping during a period of higher levels of risk (which shouldn't happen) is an indication of a coming liquidity crisis.

The problem this time is the CBs already have rates at zero and Ctrl+P turned on. They are painted in a corner this time with only fiat destruction as the way out. I have a little of GLD left in my gold portion, this as reminded me to sell that and get physical now.

Yes, but I don't remember this impact preceding fairly obvious pain. It could be that in today's more evolved shadow financial system the pain is being felt in more opaque quarters. Or it could be that I am playing less attention now than I did back then so the pain is less apparent to me. Or it could be that the Greek thing is no big deal and/or already priced in. Or any number of other things may be going on.

Gold slowly ramped from the ~$270 low in 2001 to just touching $1000 in March 2008, after which it began to break down and spiked down to around $730 on Sept 11 2008 just before the stock market crashed. This was a >25% fall putting gold solidly into bear market status.

The stock market began to break down the week after gold touch $730s, during which time risk spiked and gold quickly rose to back to the $860 range, only to fall again in Oct after the initial stock market crash as everything in the world crashed in price. That is very high volatility for gold. I remember at the time it distinctly felt that gold broke just before the market, and then recovered as the go to safe asset as the larger stock market crashed.