Quote from: deisik on June 30, 2015, 10:42:30 AM

Quote from: RealBitcoin on June 30, 2015, 10:30:49 AM

Quote from: deisik on June 30, 2015, 09:41:11 AM

Are you kidding? Gold has barely moved in the recent days (was sticking around 0.3-0.5% daily) as always, while bitcoin has been moving about an order stronger than that, that is 3-5% daily. Could you name a day in the recent years (I am not even speaking of months) when gold made even 3% daily?

Today Bitcoin has already made something around 8%

Gold stability has already reached it's climax, and its volatility wont move up or down alot in the long future.

I don't think so. Anything can happen, and, I'm afraid, is already happening. But in any case, Bitcoin volatility will by far surpass that of gold...

And you can't use Bitcoin charts starting from 2010, when it was pretty much in obscurity

Quote from: RealBitcoin on June 30, 2015, 10:30:49 AM

Upward movement doesnt count, bitcoin is only a 1 way market, it goes up, so i usually dont even count the upward movement in the volatility figure, i only count the downward movement variance or the downward volatility.

Are you sure that you properly understand what volatility is? There is no such thing as downward volatility as well as upward volatility. Volatility is a measure of variance. Most often, standard deviation is used to numerically express the value of volatility. Do you know how it is calculated?

Quote from: RealBitcoin on June 30, 2015, 10:30:49 AM

Nobody is shorting bitcoin, c`mon Cheesy

I am, since it went over 250. I expect it to come close to 300 (if ever) and then back to 200, and probably even below that. Time will tell

1) Well the sample itself is the entire data we have, and the sample is too small, we had many many events happening, almost every 6 months a big event, but after the event you see that the volatility quickly disperges. Now i cannot know for sure that the latest spikes being smaller and smaller are due to increasing confidence or due to lack or major news

So for that we will need to wait atleast 3-4 years to see how bitcoin turns out to be , where it fits in the world. But from just this data itself we can see that the volatility is decreasing, no doubt. But the cause remains to be determined

2) There is such thing as downward volatility, i dont know the exact term, english is not my native language, but you calculate that just as the standard deviation, except you dont take the absolute value from the mean of both the above and below elements, instead you only count the items that are below the mean = price decreases. This indicator shows you the downward volatility, because the variance as such is an absolute value composed of 2 subsets of data.

3) That was actually a joke, you cant short bitcoin, as in short in the financial sense. You can only buy & sell bitcoin, the "short" operation requires bitcoins to be printed out of thin air, or another collateral set aside by the exchange in form of swaps ( but thats just a workaround pseudo-shorting actually).
I know bitfinex does a good job with margin trading, but still you cannot short more bitcoins then they are on the exchange, whereas in the financial world with fiat money you can just grab a nice infiniate amount 0% interest fast loan and plummet a stock from 200$ to 1 cent in 15 minutes.