Quote from: siggy on July 06, 2015, 03:01:56 PM

Quote from: MadGamer on July 06, 2015, 02:48:44 PM

So what are your predictions for Bitcoin price on the next halving block which should happen next year Q4 or beggining of 2017 .
I know that halving will halve the mining bitcoins and not the current or existing one and I also know that the price will depends on what's the price is before halving .

Just le me know and what are the different factors and could greece issue play a part of this .

My thoughts:
1) when the last halving occurred, the majority of miners were hobby-type who tended to hold their mined coins, so the halving did not really affect the amount of coins being dumped on exchanges. result: minimal impact on price.

2) this halving is different. Now the majority of miners are large scale farms who tend to immediately sell mined coins.. you know cuz they have to do things like pay bills and buy better miners. result: larger (positive) impact on price since fewer coins will be dumped.

3) both the above should be obvious to everyone, so most people will actually bid up the price well before the halving. result: price spike leading up to halving, but no change afterwords since the expected price hike will already be priced in.

4) #3 above will also be obvious. result: expecting no price hike to materialize, no one will actually buy anything to bid up the price, so the halving will have zero effect on price.

5) #4 above will be obvious... result: expecting no change, everyone looses interest in bitcoin and decides to sell out now to beat the rush.. by the time the halving occurs price is tanking.

6) #5 above will be obvious... result: We're all DOOOOMED !!!!

7) #6 above will be obvious... result: I have a headache, I'm depressed, I'm going back to bed...

TLDR: Trying to predict what effect the halving will have on price is a pretty useless undertaking.... just flip a coin. You'll avoid all the stress and still have the same 50/50 chance of being correct.

Sigg

Current miners are not selling as much coins as you think.. They are smart and hoarding shitloads of coins now.

I guess the price will peak just before halving and drop soon after when people realize not much has changed..