Quote from: smooth on July 14, 2015, 07:37:07 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on July 14, 2015, 02:35:39 PM

Quote from: Bavaria on July 14, 2015, 08:07:48 AM

Quote from: rpietila on February 24, 2015, 11:35:10 PM

Quote from: pippo on February 24, 2015, 11:07:04 PM

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

Are you sure the possibility of Monero`s death is as high as 50%? In which case Monero can die?

In my humble opinion: unfortunately monero's chance of "death" is much higher than 50% with "death" defined as abandoned, superseded, broken, or otherwise rendered virtually valueless.

The 50% number was within 2 years. I don't find that an unreasonable estimate. Hard to see how death within two years is more likely than not considering the project has been going strong for >1 year and is still achieving new milestones, for example the first crowdfunded developer.

I think it is time to decrease the probability of failure.
In my own trading/speculation I give the probability of failure only 10-20 % at this moment, and thus the probability for at least a moderate success is 80-90 %.
I am not saying you guys should be as bullish as I am but I think it is reasonable to check the numbers every now and then.
The main argument is the community. No matter if a superior technology comes - but if it will not have a good community it is a mere token held by a few geeks only. To be a succesful currency it needs a community that consists of plenty of people who rather are greedy getting more coins than limiting their coin acquiring operations.