Quote from: inca on July 22, 2015, 05:51:35 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 04:17:57 PM

Quote from: inca on July 22, 2015, 02:07:17 PM

Quote from: dreamspark on July 22, 2015, 01:36:54 PM

Hence why the argument of it already being priced in somewhat certainly holds water.

It isn't priced in because it is over a year away. There are people arguing for a rally, a fizzle or no effect.

It is undeniably a huge event on the bitcoin calendar because it marks the last time that bitcoin coin inflation can ever be blamed for supply exceeding demand and pushing the price down.

5% inflation is pretty good. But any price shenanigans that go on around that time will be driven by the same heavy speculators driving the price up and down.

In the longer run if demand picks up then the reduced mining supply could lead to price rises. Which would be nice.

Disagree. Any event that you know of is a part of the consideration when buying/selling that stock/currency/commodity etc etc.

I'm not saying its completely priced in I said hence why that argument holds water.

You can't seriously suggest that it's not already part of the market psychology when people are already talking about it and anticipating a price rise due to it. All speculators big and small are holding hoping for it to cause a price rise.

It certainly doesn't mark the last time that btc inflation can be blamed for supply exceeding demand. How can you possibly say that. If the price rallies up to $10000 on a spike (remember on long term charts $1000+ was just a monthly spike) Then supply in $ terms could still easily outstrip demand. Don't forget not all mined coins are instantly sold, and all mined coins are part of inflation.

My point being you can't possibly state what you're saying as fact.

Saying it is priced in is meaningless in my humble opinion. It is just something people say. If the market simply knowing an event in advance means it is priced in then the 2020 halving is priced in too, right?

You are right of course that if the price rallies up hugely then even 5% inflation could exert an effect. But the price is set by supply and demand and going forward the mining supply is going to become largely an irrelevence in comparison with the actual proportion of coins already in existence being used to set the price.

I will just say that it is an exciting time to be in bitcoin.

Well yeah the 2020 halving is also 'priced in'. Everyone knows the economy behind Bitcoin production and inflation. Knowing from the start when halvings in production are taking place and having a cap on the total money supply is why many people are here and why many speculators forsee an increase in price over time as long as new money >= coins wishing to be sold.

As far as I'm concerned your biggest problem is with thinking that the only supply comes from mining. There are millions of coins out there that can be added to the supply side of the equation. There are single holders than can wipe the entire bid side from all exchanges if they so wished. Just considering mining supply is far too simplistic, and I'm certain if prices rise to ATH's and above there will be a lot of coins coming out of the woodwork. Don't take this as a bearish opinion overall just that blindly thinking halving = price rise and a continual price rise at that just doesn't seem logically sensible.

On a side note I actually think price discovery in Bitcoin is really bad due to the amount of coins being held compared to the amount being traded but thats another matter all together.