Quote from: Amph on July 28, 2015, 07:29:12 AM

Quote from: odolvlobo on July 27, 2015, 11:50:10 PM

Quote from: Amph on July 27, 2015, 07:13:33 AM

this is math, man... it's not my logic, you can't say 4% based on a subtraction of the inflation rate from 8 to 4, that's not correct

if you want real numbers then you should compare the total coins that will be less dumped(presumably 1800) with the total coins(including the mined coins) that will be dumped each day, or that are dumped each day

if for example the total coins dumped per day is 10k coins(i doubt is so high) per day for now(including the 3600 mined coins), with the halving this will lead to a reduction of almost 20%(10k-1800), which mean that the demand will go up by roughly 25%

this assuming that the demand will remain the same until halving, so even if the demand will remain the same and the price the same, with the halving alone the price will increase by 25% which mean around $360

I don't know what you mean by "total coins dumped per day". The total volume of coins traded per day is in the 100s of thousands, and a change by only 1800 per day is not going to have a noticeable daily effect, though it will have a long term effect.

traders are dumping and buying 100k per day? can you point me the source of this? i don't really care about the demand and supply but only the supply so i can compare better the reduction in the "mining supply"

if it's indeeded 100k per day than ok 1800 is nothing to that lower than 2% and will cause a 4% up in demand like you said

He's talking about transaction volume and number of unique transactions per day. Both of those are available on blockchain.info if you trust their stats. Don't get too excited. I used to play at trading and would make 50-100 unique transactions a day shifting coins around. The exchanges shift around masses of coin and sometimes move 50k or more coins in a single transaction. Mining farms paying out their miners shares are making transactions. Miners may only generate 1,800 coins but those coins are split and paid out to thousands of people. Remember, if you simply transfer coins from a cold wallet to a hot wallet or vice versa without spending any coin that's a transaction. I would guess that transactions where someone is actually spending coin on something (not day trading or shifting around) is about 10% of the transaction volume.