Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?
Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.
Many seem to struggle with causality when the effects are not immediate. I should like to experiment on forum members by removing B12 from their diets, to demonstrate gradual and delayed effects.
Not I. After X = because of X, scientifical fact!
I also enjoy extrapolating from a single point on a chart (only one reward halving has taken place to date). Too many data points only cloud the big picture

We are a little, mischievous imp, aren't we? And you know what imps like best? Being strapped and gagged.
Rumpelstilstkin can attest to my mastery.