Quote from: no to the gold cult on May 14, 2011, 09:43:14 AM

A lot of talk about bubbles right now, and to be fair I'm not surprised, look at the rocketing growth right? But think about it, with the strength, vitality and possibilities of this idea, bitcoin should be worth at least $1000 a coin. Frankly it's probably worth at least $10,000... this is why I think so:

The legs on the bitcoin can carry it all the way to be a major force in the economy within ten years, and as there's only 21 million of them a global market worth billions of 2011 dollars in bitcoin will need a single bitcoin to be worth thousands of 2011 dollars. Ideas this groundbreaking are not free, they are expensive. If bitcoin makes this much sense, you should need a mortgage or a loan or something just to buy one. We're ahead because the world hasn't noticed yet, but it's waking up and we can see the effect in the up-changing value of btc.

I'm not trying to talk the market up, honest, this is what I actually think. I won't try to talk the market down either in the hope of buying more because I am a loudmouth and won't keep my goddamn opinions to myself. And I don't think bitcoin is bubble-proof... I think it is very doubtful however that a major bitcoin bubble could form before 2013. Everyone knows that on that date bitcoin will become twice as expensive to supply regarding capital costs. When the bubbles do start to arrive (from sectors that have adopted bitcoin booming and busting for their own reasons) I doubt the bottom-outs would be less than a couple of grand.

It's like the housing bubble, it didn't happen because people suddenly lost faith in houses, it happened because the credit used to buy housing collapsed like the house of cards it all was. It was actually a debt bubble. Happily people aren't taking out loans to buy bitcoins and never will need to. If $100 dollars is all I have to spend and buys me 0.001 bitcoins, then that's how many I would buy, I am still saving my money and gaining additional buying power relatively quickly and that's the main thing.

The launch of that new and exciting but poorly named stock exchange (GLOBSEX?) is to me a further signal that we shouldn't think current bitcoin prices are realistic. Anyway these are just my thoughts, so tell me if I'm wrong.

I have to say I agree with you. In fact I think BitCoins could be worth much more than you say. Right now it is still relatively unknown but with the benefits of anonymity and speed it will become the currency of choice for all if not most black market transactions which is worth billions. Just think how useful the currency will be to mexican catels trying to launder money. These people will definately use bitcoin for that.

I play online poker and if you do too I'm sure you're aware of Black Friday. Even gray market businesses will have to use it. I think the best promoter of BitCoins is govt & the current payment providers. The more draconian they become (stopping funding for wikileaks, Amex stopped doing card transactions with legal pot dispensaries in the us etc). Therefore I don't think we need to worry about a lack of market for BitCoin