I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!
Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!
yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.
Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P
yes, noone cared on halving day or plus/minus some weeks, but:
price also bubbled from 13 to 266 a few months after the halving.
imo there will be both:
- reaction before (people thinking ahead, market "pricing in") and
- reaction afterwards (real effect of supply halving takes hold)
imo the market does try to price in the halving effect but strongly underestimates it (even after having seen what happened last time).
If we look at depicted envelope of roughly 1 year around the halving, we can see the price went from ~$5 to ~$120. Will that repeat in that way? Probably not exactly, but I think it's likely we'll see a 10-bagger or more (seen from roughly $300 level). In that sense I contradict the 1-2 year sideways prediction (unless we include whole 2015 as "sideways in 200-300 range"), I think the "quiet period" will be shorter, maybe until spring '16.
(side-note: in the end everything is halving-induced because without halving we'd have unlimited supply and probably 0 value.)