I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!
Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!
yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.
Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P
I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.