Quote from: Miz4r on August 26, 2015, 03:01:18 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 26, 2015, 02:12:57 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 26, 2015, 12:47:34 PM

Quote from: 8up on August 26, 2015, 07:24:04 AM

I call this "The Halving Fallacy"!

Halving has no immediate influence on price. Markets aren't stupid - they price in things ahead. Like they are pricing in a possible hard fork in 2016 -NOW!

yep, as nov 2012 shown there was no any immediate market reaction. absolutely no one cared as far as i remember. But price bubbled few months earlier from 6 to 16.

Personally I think the market reaction will happen months (if not earlier) before the halving, this happened in 2012 and also happened at the current LTC halving (although some of it was just blatant pumping). It's a bit like buy the rumour, sell the news only slightly different :-P

I do believe the market will react to the halving but it will not be at a time most people will expect it to happen. If most people expect something to happen at a certain time then the market will find a way to fool these people, otherwise most people would make easy money which is not how markets play out. LTC reacted strongly a couple months before their halving, at a time when most people expected something to happen much closer to the actual halving. Now maybe many people will expect BTC to also react a couple months before its halving just like LTC did, but BTC is unlikely to copy LTC here imo. I think we'll see the market price the halving in somewhere after the blocksize fork and before the halving. If the fork happens in January 2016 and the halving in July 2016 then maybe February 2016 we could expect to see a sudden big rally out of nowhere. But it could also happen much later maybe in June or July just to screw with people's minds and create doubt to make the weaker hands sell first.

I agree that the market likes to switch it up so it's not just easy for everyone to win. LTC is a perfect example. Halving occurred yesterday and LTC did nothing. Much of the pump 2 months ago was a ponzi playing the strings of those who expected a rally but were waiting to see conviction first. It was a perfectly timed and executed P&D and likely wore the market out well before the halving event actually went into effect, which is why we see a decline going into halving. Anything can happen with BTC and it may or may not face a similar situation come July.

On the other hand, BTC may have priced in two (or more) halvings with the bubble to 1200. There is no telling at this time, but if BTC were to have the same thing happen as LTC, then we can understand why you can't just assume that a halving should automatically double everyone's investment. Wouldn't that be too easy?