Thats why I said this
The price for fees can change, more wallets need to implement this feature tho. That is all that is needed for there to be no queues.
The more efficient the market and price finding mechanisms are the less queues there will be. Even with a small block size.
If wallets allow for the fee price to be changed, queues for average users will be rare and there will be a known amount above which users can be certain of getting into a block immediately.
If wallets additionally have smart price finding mechanism the market will be even more efficient and queues will be rarer.
If you have replace-by-fee as Peter Todd is trying to advocate, and wallets and pools implement that functionality, the market can be even more efficient and users can have a flawless experience without having to worry about fees at all.
I believe that having some fee pressure will push wallet developers to implement these relatively simple abilities. Some small block size increase(s) will be needed tho at some point.
Sure, let's say I agree with all of the above. To me, it's all moot without significant growth of users - growth that by your economic analysis won't happen with fees that are too high since the customers will go elsewhere. Either we can scale this thing 100X+ from where it is today or it's not interesting.
I dont think scaling to 100x is best done by simply raising the block size limit. Its even less likely to work for scaling to 1000x or 100000x which I hope will be needed.
Right now an increase is not even needed. Maybe in about a year or two at the earliest.
Moderate increases over the next few years is the way to go I believe.
Sure, we have a small chance of touching the limit for a few months at some point if we have a sudden spurt. I dont believe there will be any sort of crash-landing doomsday scenario, in that event. It will not have a large impact on Bitcoin.
Fees might double, and wallets will have to implement some needed features (most should see it coming, infact some wallets already have these capabilities), whoopie doo, no big deal.
A contentious fork on the other hand is a much riskier and more damaging event.