A contentious fork on the other hand is a much riskier and more damaging event.
And a contentious fork in an emergency/panic is an even much more riskier and much more damaging event.
The whole point of planning and carrying out the fork in the near term is to preempt significant growth to prevent an emergency situation where the hard fork is done in a panic. That could be even worse. It is better to do it now when people are calm (mostly) and are thinking rationally (mostly) and various proposals can be heard and discussed. You never want to fix a problem when it becomes a problem.