Quote from: eleuthria on August 27, 2015, 05:12:28 PM

Quote from: grau on August 27, 2015, 06:17:04 AM

Quote from: eleuthria on August 26, 2015, 08:36:51 PM

Quote from: minernoob1 on August 26, 2015, 02:16:45 PM

1/2500 = 0.04% is far from impossible. Not even really that unlikely.

*Lots of pointless dribble*

1 in 2500 chance that any block a pool solves is 99.96% CDF or worse. That is a fact. Slush has solved just under 25,000 blocks. Over an infinite number of samples of pools with 25,000 blocks solved, you would expect the mean number times the pool encountered a 99.96% CDF or worse block to be 10.

Now if you go through slush's history and find 20 times that there were 99.96% CDF (or worse) blocks, then you might have something. Or maybe if you find that in the last 5000 rounds it has happened 5 times, you might have something.

Otherwise you're trying to claim something shouldn't happen when it clearly SHOULD and WILL happen multiple times in the lifetime of that particular pool.

I have not claimed it should not happen, but that the event is less likely than temporary technical problems.
I also presented a model for the appropriate trigger levels of investigation, since a pool operator who has to explain production outcome to investors needs a model more precise than ..... your dribble.