Why Armstrong Can Predict The Future Inspite of the Butterfly Effect of Chaos

Quote from: macsga on September 13, 2015, 11:33:59 AM

Let me thank you all for your insight and reasoning. IMHO, there's nothing you can "definitely" predict under any circumstances. In any case you would be subjected to that "tiny" turbulence within the chaotic spin of the series of events that will ruin your soup. I've been talking about this with a Jew friend over the net and he said to me "this is all BS - no one knows WTF will happen". He added though, that this kind of predictions have the "attractor" effect (ie: They tend to "create" the "circumstances" for it to happen).

In Physics terms it's just like triggering the double pendulum in order to pinpoint a certain trajectory within the next -short time- period (after a long while, it won't truly matter). I know the above may sound bogus, but they do have a great logical and scientific basis. Nevertheless, I cannot say for sure that that's the way things work...

PS:
Today's the day you know. The end of the 49 year cycle of Shemitah and the beginning of Jubilee year. Let's see what the cat will bring in...

I bring to readers' attention the link to my posts within that "triggering the double pendulum" argument about the unpredictability of the Butterfly Effect of chaos.

Order is relative to the observer. For the macroscopic observer, the chaos at the microscopic level is significantly irrelevant to the order that is perceived at the macroscopic level. This can be further extended to the chaos (Butterfly Effect) we perceive at the human level, is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Earth perceives relative to the Sun's cycles. This can be further extended to the chaos the solar system perceives is significantly irrelevant to the order that the Milky Way galaxy perceives.

And these relative perspectives are not just on the scale from microscopic to macroscopic, but also in terms of the number of dimensions considered. For example, if a human considers space and time orthogonally (what most humans perceive except for the occasional Doppler effect that humans can typically perceive with their senses), one gets a different reality than if one considers spacetime as in relativity (what governs quantum mechanics and astrophysics). Armstrong's model has pulled such multi-dimensional order out of what we normally perceives as chaotic because we only consider the market price data in one or two orthogonal dimensions.

Quote from: TPTB_need_war on June 07, 2015, 10:25:26 PM

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Before i sleep, some links:

https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aarmstrongeconomics.com+hidden+order

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=355212.msg10890931#msg10890931

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9566419#msg9566419

See also his entropy model for a stochastic momentum model.

Edit: the "strange attactor" is a hidden order in what normally appears to be chaotic from a different perspective. Thus finding that order is about reorienting your perspective:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/research/economic-thought/by-topic/chaos-theory

Quote from: Martin Armstrong

The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a wave form and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.

Therefore, Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory investigates the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions and subtle changes in the input can created drastic alternative in the outcome. This has been explained as the effect which is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Slight differences in initial conditions yield widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general without comprehending dynamic analysis that is cyclical based.

This chaos that appears is complex, yet it masks a hidden order beneath. The complexity of variables creates the illusion that these systems are unpredictable yet they can be extremely deterministic when viewed correctly. The future behavior of such systems is entirely determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved whatsoever. In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems allows them to be predictable when approached objectively by a computer eliminating the randomness of human judgment. This type of behavior is best described as Deterministic Chaos.

Edit#2: Why Cycles Must Exist

I provided a theoretical proof of that in my 2012 essay on the The Universe in the section Matter as a continuum.

Armstrong explained it with less theoretical precision than I did above.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/11934

Quote from: Martin Armstrong

Understanding that everything in nature moves in a cyclical manner is vital to comprehending the world around us. This is how energy moves. The waves in the ocean give the impression the water is moving when in fact if you throw a bottle that floats into the water you will notice that the bottle rises and falls but does not move with the waves that pass below. WHY? Because the wave is just energy moving THROUGH the water, not the water itself moving. Water movement is the current that takes place separate and distinct from the wave movement.

Once you wake up and begin to see that energy moves THROUGH the medium be it space, the air, or crowds of people causing collective behavior we call panic, then you can begin to see the world in a whole new light. This fall, we will see more chaos in weather.

Armstrong's point is that energy is required for change, i.e. for any system to be alive and not static and dead or in other words for any system to exist and be perceived. Without energy, life does not exist. And then he notes that energy moves as a wave through a medium.

But why a wave (i.e. with a frequency and thus a cycle)? Friction. Without friction, then the speed-of-light would be infinite and the past and present would collapse into an infinitesimal point and nothing would exist. You see that for energy to exist, friction is required. But friction then gives rise to momentum and inertia. And momentum and inertia cause overshoots and undershoots, which thus leads to oscillation and coupling (resonance). And thus the fundamental matter of the universe is frequency and phase.