Now you are obviously trying to backpedal this issue. You say that the longer the price stays at $230, the less chance it has to drop below $200. What is it if not predicting an unpredictable thing? Generally, it is irrelevant (how long it stays there), but in reality it works quite the other way round (as I said)...
I agree with the statement. We categorize objects and prices all the time. If Bitcoin stays on a price level, then we get used to this level. Obviously, the probability that a guess like this is true is low in a highly volatile market like Bitcoin's, but it grows while stability is growing.
Perhaps we do have now a probability of 10% to "not falling below 200" this year. In one month more Bitcoin staying at this price level it could increase to 12 or 13 %. (It's only a raw example, not a calculation I actually made).
You cannot calculate such probabilities (or otherwise measure them). And I'm not talking about any definite number like 10% or any other number for that matter. I mean any such methodology would be pretty much useless. Why? Because for such calculations to make any sense you should know the probability distribution, that is, a probability of each possible Bitcoin price, which you don't and can't know...